During regular canvassing in my Oxfordshire constituency of Didcot and Wantage, including for May 1st’s county council elections, it became increasingly common to encounter voters who are open about their intention to vote Reform. A surprising number of these were choosing between Reform and Lib Dem. But my constituency now has the only Reform county councillor in Oxfordshire, largely surrounded by Lib Dem councillors, making it all the more important to understand voting patterns.

Voters’ reasons for considering Reform are more varied than might be assumed, with scepticism about net zero and climate change commitments now as common as concerns about immigration. 

Uniting them all is widespread cynicism and loss of confidence in the entire political system and the British state. This aspect is shared with many non-Reform voters too, but Reform have captured the bulk of the ‘anti-establishment’ sentiment. 

Such feelings are of course not new. It is therefore interesting to consider why it is now, in the 2020s, that a party like Reform is making parliamentary and local election breakthroughs. 

Clearly the dire performance of the last Conservative government was a major factor in many former Conservative voters looking for an alternative on the right. However, there are reasons to question the common narrative, that this sundering of the traditional right of centre vote is the main reason why the Conservatives lost. 

Consider constituencies where there was no Reform candidate. Even in these, the Conservatives tended to lose, with very significant swings to either Labour or the Liberal Democrats. Examples include West Dorset (18% Conservative to Lib Dem swing); Earley and Woodley (12% Conservative to Labour swing); Hexham (15% Conservative to Labour swing); and Mid-Dorset and North Poole (16% Conservative to Lib Dem swing).

These results suggest that it was often not the case that the second choice of a Reform voter was Conservative. Instead, it appears that many voted for another party who was not the incumbent. 

This aligns with my experience from canvassing Reform voters that it is a strong desire for change, as much as any particular opinions on immigration or net zero, that drives them. The unpopularity of the Labour government, not yet a year in office, is a real concern in this context, as it means there is loss of faith in the two largest parties, as symbols of a wider system that is not working. Paradoxically, support for Reform appears to grow in lockstep with the Labour government’s seeming desire to appeal to Reform voters, by substantively maintaining existing Conservative policies on issues such as European Union relations, immigration, and law and order. 

In this context, what should those of us in other parties do in response to the rise of Reform? 

Firstly, it is important we do not succumb to the temptation to demonise and make assumptions about Reform voters. Hillary Clinton’s “deplorables” comment during the 2016 US presidential election about Trump supporters did not help her cause. Instead, it’s essential that we take the time to listen and engage. My experience is that most voters considering Reform are willing to have a polite discussion. An example is a voter I met in my constituency the other day. What started off with some negative comments and assumptions about immigration, which I politely and assertively challenged, evolved into a conversation about local issues and why she thought that the country wasn’t working. This led to some agreement on my plans to improve some of the local problems raised, and a fruitful discussion on national aspects, for example on parking and congestion challenges at school time and what can be done to encourage more people to walk and cycle. 

Secondly, it is essential to all voters losing faith in the system that they see tangible local change on the key issues, whether health service capacity, transport, or problems with new estates and their management companies or adoption by councils. Hard work by local politicians and being able to have proof points of genuine change can counter cynicism and rebuild faith. Taking two examples from my constituency, it is not surprising that voters lose faith when it takes two years to lay tarmac on a path across a muddy field that is a key walking route to a primary school, or when a streetlight has been out of use for four years because of arguments between new estate developers and the local authority. 

Finally, of course the national picture is important. Getting the economy moving, provision of social and genuinely affordable housing, and a sense of a government/state machine that can actually do positive things are all vitally needed to prove that our current system can work and deliver for people. Delivering tangible improvements to people’s lives will make far more difference than trying to outdo Reform on issues such as immigration and net zero. In that regard, whilst those of us in other parties will continue to challenge, hold to account, and suggest improvements, we must all hope that the Labour government can achieve some of its aims. 

Olly Glover is the Liberal Democrat Member of Parliament for Didcot and Wantage. He is a member of the All-Party Parliamentary Group for Fair Elections.