There is nothing inevitable about the rise of Nigel Farage and Reform UK. Brits are not naturally predisposed towards national populism and all the divisions that come with it. Parties like Reform here, and their counterparts in the USA and across Europe, only ever prosper when progressives are unsure and timid, when they don’t have heart, ambition, purpose and coherence.

Elections can be about fine margins but politics is about deep meaning.

Thursday’s election results are crystal clear about this above all else – Labour and the Tories, the old duopoly, are both deeply unpopular. A recent More in Common mega poll suggests Reform could win 180 seats at the next election, with Labour and the Tories trailing behind on 165 each. Of course, this is just one poll at one moment, but it reflects the distortion of a multi-party political landscape by a two-party system ill-equipped for today’s complex, volatile realities.

This a world Compass has long predicted and has been preparing for.

Already on the airwaves this morning Labour’s apparent response is to mimic Reform on key issues – immigration, net zero, cutting benefits – but then tell us that the next election is a stark choice between Prime Minister Farage or Starmer. Labour’s message is ‘we will be like Reform but don’t vote for Reform’.

We are not going to beat Reform by being Reform. This strategy is morally wrong and electorally risky.

Morally it concedes values of rights, tolerance and dignity. Electorally it ignores the fact that Reform-inclined voters are more likely to vote for the real thing. And if Labour cannot deliver bold change with a 150-seat majority then how is to get any better?

The Runcorn and Helsby by-election can’t be brushed as a typical mid-term loss when merely months ago it was Labour’s 49st safest seat. If Reform can win here now and it can win in hundreds of seats next.

Labour Party chair Ellie Reeves blamed the Tories for gifting the seat to Reform, accusing them of a backroom deal. But this is exactly what Labour and the Liberal Democrats did in the General Election and have done before. This is what happens in a broken system with no proportional representation – it forces parties to duck and dive.

What should terrify Labour strategists about Runcorn and Helsby is that the Green vote went up – even though Green voters knew this might let Reform in. If Labour is not progressive enough to win even tactical support then electoral disaster looms.

Our polling shows only 11% of Labour’s 2024 voters are leaning toward Reform, while 29% are open to the Greens and 41% to the Lib Dems. Polls out this week paint a clear picture: if Labour loses only its Reform-curious voters, it risks 123 seats. But it stands to lose double that — over 250 seats — if it loses support from Green-curious voters.

Worse still, progressive parties are now expelling members who support cross-party collaboration in the face of the move to Unite the Right.

We don’t need a more tribal, isolated, and divided progressive movement in the face of the threat of national populism.

We need a Popular Front to confront the rise of Reform. If existing progressive parties won’t build it, we must.

Compass has long predicted the death of the two-party system. Temporarily it reappears, like around Brexit or in 2024 to defeat the Tories, but it won’t hold because it is tactical, not strategic, and devoid of deep meaning and purpose. The politics of the least bad option has had its day. The public knows our economic and democratic system are broken and want big, credible change.

Instead of facing this reality, Labour is trying to out-Reform Reform.

Some in Labour helped create this existential threat, hoping Reform would split the Tories’ vote. Remember when they pulled their candidate in Clacton to give Farage a free run? But it’s Reform that is now the Opposition – both electorally and politically. Reform may still collapse under its own contradictions, but they are racing to professionalise and ran more candidates in these local elections than any other party.

Fundamentally though, this is not about what Reform does—it’s about what progressives fail to do. Orthodoxy now leads to autocracy.

Reform doesn’t offer real solutions. It feeds off hopelessness and resentment. Their rise is not inevitable but it’s much more likely when:

• inequality pushes millions of people to their breaking point, while millionaires see their wealth and power grow
• gross injustices like the two-child benefit limit are not scrapped but the winter fuel allowance is and PIP is cut
• we fail to reform our political system that hoards power at the centre, locks citizens out of decision making, and ignores millions of votes
• their anti-system credentials are boosted when Labour ministers take freebies
• the hope of real change after 14 years of Tory misrule fizzles out in months.

This is what happens when a party wins by not being the Tories—but then governs like them.

And this is what happens when you continually attack the left and appease the right!

A particularly troubling choice is Labour’s refusal to restore the supplementary vote system for mayoral elections.

Just look at the result for the Mayor of West of England. Labour won on 25% of the vote. Last time, thanks to a different voting system, they held the post with 59.5% of the vote. What kind of mandate exists when three out of four votes don’t make a difference?

With five parties polling strongly, our voting system is delivering chaos and turning elections into a lottery. It simply can’t cope with the multi-party politics we have in the UK.

First Past the Post doesn’t just harm Labour and progressive’s chances of winning but weakens the platforms they stand on because it weakens the pluralist spirit in politics. Mayoral candidates no longer have to build consensus to win second preferences.

That’s why the democracy sector has come together to say Labour must commit to reinstating the supplementary vote.

This can be changed using legislation going through Parliament – the more support we get the more likely change will be.

Precisely because of the fragmentation of parties and voters, pluralism matters more than ever. The old duopoly is over and with it the adversarial politics it forged must end. So many more councils are now under No Overall Control. Under these conditions, parties must cooperate, whether they want to or not. Soon the national level will be no different.

And the biggest polling winner of the night? NOTA—“None of the Above.” In recent polling, 43% of the public chose none of the major party leaders (Starmer, Badenoch, Farage, or Davey) when asked who would make the most effective PM.

And just watch as Farage and Reform realise that First Past the Post is working for them; that they can win Westminster seats and local mayoralties on 30% of the vote. 

Yes, under proportional representation, 30% of the vote would give Reform 30% of the seats. But under First Past the Post they stand to win 60% of the seats and, importantly, 100% of the power.

It is time more than ever for proportional representation for Westminster.  

So what do we do? Well…

• We need bold, inspiring ideas like The New Settlement.
• We need a clear electoral strategy that allows us to win on a progressive agenda: Thin Ice.
• We must directly challenge the far right: After the Riots and the work our local groups like Stratford on Avon and York & North Yorkshire have been doing.
• We must campaign on the big issues using every opportunity we can — like our campaign to bring water into public ownership.
• And we are encouraging Labour to be bold by finding the voices within the party that are willing to grasp this moment – which we will be doing on 31st May at Change: HOW!

There are massive public majorities in favour of a wealth tax, climate action, proportional representation, and public ownership of utilities. We are determined to ensure they are pursued.

We need a broad and deep alliance, based on delivering the change that most British voters want whether they’re not voting, or floating between Labour, Reform or Greens: economic justice and a democratic reset.

We warned before the General Election in July 2024 that Labour’s victory had to be about more than just ejecting the Tories. Things had to change – drastically and quickly. Recent months have shown just how hard it is to govern without a vision, a plan, and a deeper purpose. Without a compass, there is only drift.

Labour seems to be losing ground everywhere. But most of all it’s losing its soul. The social contract—the moral and material glue that binds society—is tearing. Focus groups by More in Common captured the public mood in one phrase: “a shambles.” Other descriptions included “depressing,” “chaotic,” and “in decline.” These are not just the conditions for Farageism—they are the seeds of riots and deeper unrest.

Thursday’s election results must be a wake-up call—not just for Labour, but for all progressive activists, party members, and citizens across civil society. If we don’t change how our economy and democracy work, nothing will be enough to stop Farage.

We need a new gravitational force in politics— one that is genuinely progressive, inclusive, and transformative. It’s time for a new direction.