Jon Trickett's pamphlet raises a number of interesting issues. My impression reading it was, however, that it was driving to a presumed conclusion rather than a piece of genuine exploration.

One of my reasons for the above view is the use of data. A great deal is made of the historic decline of the Tory vote. This is done without the general picture of the fragmentation of the vote and decreasing party loyalty across the board. Many of the same comments apply equally to Labour.

Another problem with Jon Trickett's analysis, or so it seems to me, is that while he clearly explains the tensions between the Tory core vote and the need for the Party to adapt changes in society he presents this as some kind of zero sum game (if they adapt they lose the core vote, if they don't they don't pick up new ones). What is missing from all this is an analysis of how the Tories might construct a new core vote to meet more modern conditions.

It is possible that what is happening in education could give an idea of how such a new constituency could be created. If the school system is fragmented and partially privatised parents will increasingly find that they have to scrabble to find a suitable school for their children. In these circumstances they could end up in a position from which discussion of creating a decent comprehensive system may appear to them as a threat to their efforts to get the best outcome for their children. In other words fragmenting/privatising provision makes it harder to see things from a general social perspective.

And that leads to a point not considered at all in this pamphlet. What policies should Labour follow to counter the building of such a new Tory constituency? Currently Labour's position is to follow the Tory lead and promise only to tweak the results (education is a good example of this). But the general point is that it doesn't make a lot of sense to discuss what sort of electoral base the Tories might or might not be able to build without at the same time discussing what is happening to Labour and what direction Labour might move in. If Labour stays as it is then the Tories have little to fear since society will continue to function in more or less the same way whoever is in government.