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EVENT
After the election: what next for centre-left politics?
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The real question is how best to win the referendum on PR, says George Irvin
What's important at the moment is that those like us who favour PR stay cool and look at different strategies. In going to the largest party first, Clegg has followed commonly accepted political practice.
There are multiple political routes to PR. The problem with the strategy favoured by much of the centre-left commentariat (Jackie Ashley, Polly Toynbee et al) is that although an immediate Lib-Lab coalition might get us a Referendum----the Referendum could be lost. What is vital to win the Referendum!
Imagine two different scenarios.
In the first, after 3-4 days of waiting to see who blinks first, Cameron finally has to admit that the Tories won't support a Tory-LibDem pact (meanwhile, the LibDems tell Clegg roughly the same). Both leaders have tried and failed to cohabit
Nick goes to Gordon and they agree on a broad coalition (including some smaller parties) based on a PR referendum in 6 months and a Parliamentary election using AV+ within a year---during which time Gordon resigns gracefully as Labour leader.
But within the next 6 months, the second leg of the recession takes hold and joint Chancellors Cable and Darling are forced to placate the financial markets by announcing cuts-deeply unpopular cuts!
The Tory press, meanwhile, goes on endlessly about the illegitimate nature of Lib-Lab's ‘cynical deal' having robbed Dave of government, and-most importantly-the irrelevance of PR which is unnecessary ("we've had succesful FPTP for 10,000 years, blah blah") and, moreover, "PR will bring Britain even more political instability". Referendum day comes, the vote is lost, the Lib-Lab pact is discredited and the Tories assume power.
Now imagine an alternative scenario. Clegg doesn't do a deal with Brown, the Tories form a minority Govt, and they attempt to push through their own even deeper cuts. (Meanwhile, Labour replaces Gordon just as in the first scenario.) But in 6-8 months' time, the LibDems and Labour vote down the budget and form a new, far more popular coalition government which pushes through a successful referendum on PR.
I can't believe the LibDems haven't simulated all manner of alternative strategies. They may already have decided that the wisest course is to let Cameron form a minority government-and commit political suicide. Hence the long wait-all part of a calculated set of moves.
It's hypothetical, but that's the name of the game at the moment.
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Comments
on 11 May 2010, 5:09:04 PM
They are neither competent political operators nor idealists.
The only progressive tendencies they've shown are progressing out
of Cowley Street into two different negotiations at the same time.
And,as you say,managing to make John Reids' political principles look
fit for purpose.If they acheived the Holy Grail of the PR they wanted,who would ever choose them,and why?
At least Compass launched the energy windfall tax campaign,rejected by new Labour.Centrica say their profits are very healthy after the cruel winter.So that's heart warming.
on 11 May 2010, 3:44:06 PM
The divisive and wholly unnecessary throwing of demands for PR into Labour’s troubled waters both during the election campaign and after it has divided Labour more than it already is divided. Not only that, it has allowed some of ‘new labour’s most Blairite Rightists, (eg Blunkett and Reid,) to both make a Tory led Gvt almost certain; but to comport themselves as custodian’s of the Labour Party’s soul into the bargain.
on 11 May 2010, 2:58:58 PM
In all seriousness though the Liberals are shifty.
Take it from an SDP survivor of the SDP\Liberal fusion exercise.
At times I still feel like the ghost of a dead policeman.
The Labour Party has the chance to re-invent itself.
It should take it,rather than take the Goldblum\Fly option.
on 11 May 2010, 1:45:26 PM
Let’s be clear: the Lib Dems in many respect are more progressive than are other members of the anti-Tory majority. - Not least more progressive than most members of the outgoing Gvt and more progressive than many in the new PLP.
The semi-detached parts of the Labour, as represented by some of the Compass management committee and some other Compass members, have no firm or resolute interest in keeping Labour in and the Tories out. Beyond these de-facto ‘new labourists’ with nothing to lose with the advent of a Tory based Gvt, the majority of people do need a Labour Gvt- even if it is one dominated by the visceral anti social democrats who are so prominent on the Labour Right.
Labour went to the country on a commitment to AV. In so far as the electoral system should be a factor in determining any arrangement with the Lib Dems; AV is that factor. Whatever misgivings socialists and social democrats have and will have about a Labour Gvt, (whether or not it has Lib Dem support,) at the very least Labour should seek conscientiously to give legislative effect to its commitment to AV and Lords Reform. Labour should not be panicked out of this commitment by those of its fifth column who worked so assiduously to advance themselves the Lib Dem vote, during the election.
Thanks to the efforts of Compass, the Lib dem supporting media and some members of a woefully Rightwing cabinet, such efforts as Labour and arguably the SNP and PC can mount against the attacks on the living standards and jobs of all strata of working class people, are now weaker than they would otherwise be. Shame on you.
on 11 May 2010, 11:37:44 AM
Let me make one thing clear. I am quite convinced that ‘alliance politics’ is the politics of the future----I strongly oppose the Neanderthal view that sees this deal as a question of how best to ensure that Labour is one day returned to power with a large majority. There may never again be such a majority, and it is questionable whether there should be. Politics has been fragmenting for years, and the ‘left’ now includes members of the LibDems, Greens, SNP and other parties.
One thing is certain: we should support PR, and PR means more than simple AV. AV+ is the least we can accept. (As for Robin’s comment about tiny parties ruling the roost, this is perfectly avoidable by setting voting thresholds).
Since I wrote the above piece (Monday morning), the game has changed---and it may change again any minute. Polly Toynbee’s coverage and judgement has been excellent, and her most recent piece on the Guardian website is sceptical about Labour’s genuine desire for PR (see Dugsie above). For some time, I have been urging Neal to mount a Compass Campaign about PR so that we can have a truly informed debate. Few people have read the Jenkins Commission report, and fewer still understand the significant differences between (say) AV, AV+ and STV. It's time to start thinking not just about PR, but what sort of PR and what we need to do to win over the doubters.
on 11 May 2010, 11:18:44 AM
Around me when you say what do you think of PR they say "P" what, whats PR, oh no not that, and you say what does it mean and they say I've no idea but i do not want it.
on 11 May 2010, 11:17:29 AM
Around me when you say what do you think of PR they say "P" what, whats PR, oh no not that, and you say what does it mean and they say I've no idea but i do not want it.
on 11 May 2010, 9:50:11 AM
John McDonnell is likely to stand, but not get sufficient support among MPs. I have tested the support for PR in the LRC and I am in a small minority in supporting it.
on 10 May 2010, 6:51:47 PM
on 10 May 2010, 5:42:02 PM
But after all the put downs Clegg had during PMQ's I do not blame Clegg for saying you want a deal then Brown has to go.
I was no fan of Blair, but when it comes to brown I think he has been a massive problem for the labour party.
A slush fund to fight Blair given to him by a Non Dom was a disgrace Blair was elected as Leader something brown has not and never will now.
PR I hope will now be put in place, getting it through and into being is going to be a headache, and i think we will have another election within six months maybe a year.
because the Tories are not going to sit by idly now.
The welfare reform , the 10p tax fiasco, taxing the pensions, all this you'd expect from the dam Tories, the ending of income support.
the promise to help carers then dumped, he was to much like Thatcher and not enough of a socialist.
Sorry I'm in heaven now the bloke has gone, and I hope he is not sent to the dam Lords either.
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