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ICM poll shows Labour closing in on Tories

Tuesday, December 15 2009

Today's ICM poll for The Guardian shows the Tory's poll lead narrowing to just 9 points - with Labour up 2 points and the Tories down 2 points. Could it be that bold social democratic policies such as a Bankers' Windfall Tax are proving popular with voters? We think so.

See the poll results in full

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1 to 11 of 11

Posted by Karl Marx
on 28 December 2009, 12:32:03 PM

"Mrs Thatcher must be spinning in her grave!" Winston was that a Freudian slip,
or is it again signs of utter dillusion.

Posted by Winston Churchill
on 26 December 2009, 9:04:30 PM

I couldn't care less but sandal-wearing liberals are turning our kids gay. End this madness now, abolish tax. Mrs Thatcher must be spinning in her grave!

Posted by Winston Churchill (Londonistan)
on 26 December 2009, 7:26:19 PM

here come the pc brigade and the nanny state, muslims are ignoring the silent majority because nobody has the guts to stand up to them, ture patriots must bring back hanging, mrs thatcher must be spinning in her grave

Winston Churchill

Posted by Rudolph
on 21 December 2009, 2:17:28 PM

Winston, while Santa granted your xmas wish for reincarnation, there seems to be a fault with your brain. We apologise for any inconvenience this may cause, especially symptoms of right wing hysteria. However no refund i'm afraid, have a nice day, usual conditions apply etc.
Rgds, Toytown PLC

Posted by Lee (Highlands)
on 21 December 2009, 11:33:17 AM

Latest UKPR figures: 40-27; Tory majority: 50

Mori: 43-26
YouGov:40-28

Posted by Winston Churchill (Londonistan)
on 20 December 2009, 8:36:54 PM

This is just typical! when will people realise that namby pamby environmentalists are giving priority to immigrants because they are sick. The silent majority must leave the country.. Wake up people!?!cicad

Posted by Mark
on 17 December 2009, 12:12:58 AM

Isn't Neal Lawson and Compass just the business?

Posted by Roger (East Sussex)
on 16 December 2009, 2:48:37 PM

Only up to a point...

The 5 most recent polls do indeed show a drop in the Tory lead over three days of polling:

ICM/Guardian 2009-12-13 +9
YouGov/Sunday Times 2009-12-11 +9
BPIX/Mail on Sunday 2009-12-11 +11
ComRes/Independent on Sunday 2009-12-10 +17
Angus Reid/PoliticalBetting 2009-12-10 +17

But if we look at the 7 polls published before them you can see that this is well within normal degree of variation:

Populus/Times 2009-12-06 +8
YouGov/Sunday Times 2009-12-04 +13
ICM/Sunday Telegraph 2009-12-03 +11
ComRes/Independent 2009-11-29 +10
YouGov/Telegraph 2009-11-26 +10
Angus Reid/Political Betting 2009-11-23 +17
Ipsos-MORI/Observer 2009-11-15 +6

Comparing poll to poll we see that ComRes increased the Tory lead from +10 to +17 between 29 Nov and 10 Dec - although ICM and YouGov did see it drop.

All this data tells me is that the over the last month 11 separate polls have given the Tories leads ranging from +6 to +17% - average 11%.

Now it is possible for an 11% poll lead to evaporate in 3-6 months, but barring something truly cataclysmic happening realistically they are still going to end up getting at least 5% more votes and more seats than Labour.

If this doesn't give them an outright majority that is because the electoral system is badly screwed.

Posted by Mark
on 15 December 2009, 8:50:26 PM

Thank you Lee. I am very pleased you think so!

Posted by Lee (highlands)
on 15 December 2009, 7:59:20 PM

Mark, you are such a flatterer !

Posted by Mark
on 15 December 2009, 7:50:03 PM

Absolute Nonsense

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Compass poll

ICM poll shows Labour closing in on Tories

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