Budget 2009: Housing in crisis says Rowenna Davis
In Brentford, an 18-year-old girl has been sleeping rough in a tent for five days. Her mum's boyfriend chucked her out of home because he didn't like the grief her one-year-old baby was giving him. The 12,000-long waiting list for housing in Hounslow means that this girl isn't expecting her own flat any time soon.
She was shown some temporary accommodation, but after a brief look round, sleeping rough seemed like a better option. Perhaps the most shocking thing about this girl's story is that it is not unusual. Four and a half million people are estimated to need social housing in the UK. This includes 600,000 families that are thought to be living in overcrowded accommodation and 57,000 that councils classified as homeless as of 2008.
At present, we are failing to provide for these people. Current estimates suggest that we need 240,000 new homes a year to meet demand, but there are estimated to be fewer than 80,000 new starts in 2009. This rate of replacement means that to keep up with demand, a new home built today must last 1,200 years. With an estimated 75,000 repossessions forecast for this year alone, this problem is only going to grow.
Yesterday Alistair Darling released plans for a £1bn housing package, a chunk of which would go towards boosting affordable housing. Today the chancellor announced £500m in support for housing in his budget speech, including £100m for councils to build their own. This is welcome, but even if this pledge turns out to be more than a simple rehash of past announcements, it still won't be enough to meet the scale of the problem we are dealing with. The entire system needs fundamental reform.
A new report from Compass clearly articulates just how we got into this mess. Since the 1980s, we have seen a decline in affordable housing as people were encouraged to take up private home ownership. For many this was an admirable goal, but for others it was downright irresponsible. Without the background assumption of ever-rising house prices, these families could never have afforded the mortgages they were being offered. In the wake of the financial crisis, many of these vulnerable people are now sliding into negative equity, debt and homelessness, and exposing the weaknesses of our economy in the process. We must learn from the sub-prime crisis in the US. We cannot keep handing out loans to those who can't afford it. We have to start thinking about how those who cannot afford home ownership are going to live with dignity outside of the private sector.
Such a system would make economic as well as moral sense. A stable home is a prerequisite for economic activity, educational advancement and social stability. It is also about the efficient collectivisation of risk. If individuals are going through a particularly difficult time, it doesn't make sense to see them evicted from their homes, forced into temporary accommodation or on to the streets with all the psychological trauma that entails. Far better to give them the option of keeping themselves afloat.
A new expansion of affordable housing would also provide a much-needed fiscal stimulus to the economy. It would help soak up unemployment and fund an investment that would pay dividends in the long run. Construction workers in particular are desperate to see this happen as orders drop at a terrifying rate. The government needs to connect the people's demand for social housing with the suppliers' desperation for work. Failing to do so would be a false economy.
Housing is the mechanism through which a financial crisis can turn into a full-blown economic crisis. If we do not act, it could give rise to a social crisis too. The 18-year-old in her tent is already blaming migrants for taking up all the affordable housing. For too long, the government has allowed disenfranchised groups at the bottom of the scale to blame each other for what is essentially the government's failure. Now that the financial crisis has extended the housing problem to more vocal, middle class groups, perhaps the government will finally be given the incentive it needs to put affordable housing on the agenda.
Rowenna Davis
The new Compass report Don't bet the house on it - no turning back to housing boom and bust will be available on this site early next week
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Comments
on 25 May 2009, 12:20:30 PM
on 12 May 2009, 10:19:14 AM
on 29 April 2009, 12:34:41 PM
on 23 April 2009, 6:42:28 AM
The housing problem will only be solved when the Government first acknowledges the three primary causes of the problem, and then implements policies that rectify each of these factors in turn. This means tackling: (i) house price inflation; (ii) the shortage of building land; (iii) the high price of that land and the speculation that results from it.
(i) Tackling house price inflation means controlling the balance of supply of new homes, and the supply of buyers. You control the former by building more properties, and the latter by setting a minimum mortgage deposit percentage or amount. As I have argued before, in order to guarantee independence from political manipulation, this mortgage deposit threshold should be set by the Bank of England's monetary committee at the same time it sets the base rate to control CPI, with the aim of keeping house price inflation within an agreed range close to CPI.
(ii) Limiting the availability of mortgages will control inflation but it won't necessarily deliver more new homes. However, as the deposit threshold rises, the political pressure on the Government will increase and so it will be forced to build more. The primary obstacle to this building programme, though, is our planning regime. As this is mainly controlled by local councils it can only be solved by incentivising those councils to free up more building land and give consent to more planning applications. Government should therefore give each council an annual house-build quota to meet. Those that meet their targets get additional infrastructure support, those that don't get massive increases in council tax. Politically this is a win-win for Labour as the increase in homes for first-time buyers will be popular with the electorate, whereas most of these new homes will be in Tory run counties. Thus the NIMBYs who object, or get clobbered by the council tax increases, will be mainly Tory voters.
(iii) The proposals in (i) and (ii) will yield house price stability and more homes for private buyers, but these will not necessarily be affordable. To achieve affordable or social housing you need to tackle the other cause of unaffordability, namely the high price of building land. With agricultural land selling at about £5k per acre and building land at £500k per acre the opportunities for speculation are clearly huge, hence the recent growth in land banks. However, if these capital gains were taxed with CGT at 90%, this money could be used to fund affordable housing on these sites at no cost to the taxpayer. In this way, developers could be encouraged to forgo the CGT on their site if they hand over 25% of the completed homes to the State pro bono. Thus everybody wins except the land speculators, but even with CGT at 90% the land speculators could still make a ten-fold profit on their investment, so they can hardly complain either.
The policies I have outlined above are the ones that we should have adopted during the property boom of the last decade to at least ameliorate the effects of the current recession, and to prevent any future housing-boom-fuelled recessions. However, given where we are now, we need to go further. As Rowenna points out, the Government needs to connect the people's demand for social housing with the suppliers' desperation for work. The Government should borrow more in the short-term to invest in housing and buy up the available stock. However, unlike borrowing for other infrastructure projects, much of this money could be recouped in the future through private sales of some of these houses as house prices increase. This would counteract any future inflation, and be totally Keynesian. It could also allow the funding to be made through dedicated housing bonds that would ultimately be self-financing and fiscally neutral, and would not add to the long-term debt of the country. What the Government should NOT be doing, however, is using public money to bail out construction companies, particularly those that lost money on land-bank speculation. They gambled and lost!
on 23 April 2009, 4:57:12 AM
on 23 April 2009, 4:05:08 AM
Many people refuse a shelter a temporary accommodation bed and breakfast or a hotel thinking if I take this I'll never get a flat they will just leave me, I suspect that might be true, if you have a baby it's the baby that needs the care not the girl.
on 22 April 2009, 10:08:47 PM
A place in which to live is too important and is subject too much to scarcity to be left to the strictures of an unsympathetic money making mechanism.
In recent years property has demanded a price that is two or three times the cost of construction. Where is the surplus going?
Insurance companies use a figure of £1000 per square metre for replacement cost.
The average house is 100 square metres so should cost £100,000 plus land cost.
If the land cost element is the problem then a government that has a will to make inroads into this issue will take whatever drastic measures are required to make land available at a sensible price, say, ten percent of the cost of the house that stands on it.
Market mechanisms cannot be applied to land because the stuff is out of production so it’s supply cannot respond to market pressures.
Home buying families who are feeding money into the pockets if profiteers are unable to be independent and to participate in the wider economy.
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